Week38 MacroTechnicals - Have You Seen Animal Chin?

Some thoughts on major narratives showing signs of exhaustion into potential turning points around FOMC and OPEX, and for a major economy for a compelling trade call.

The Search For New Themes

I'm probably showing my name here but that title reminds me of an old movie called "The Search For Animal Chin", absolutely legendary skateboarding movie!

In addition to the usual, I share some sentiments on why some major narratives are showing signs of exhaustion into a potential turning point around FOMC and triple-witch, as well make note of some major news which I think could be a turning point for a major economy, and therefore a compelling trade idea.

Week2 MacroTechnicals - Dips, Doubts & Data Prints

Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG

Week1 MacroTechnicals - BTC/XAG thoughts

Strong gdp prices and growth data challenges “inflation beaten.” Risk-on equities has room to broaden with volatility falling. Fading dominant narratives in commodities, favoring cross-JPY longs, selectively USD longs, and constructive on BTC.

Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town

Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.

Week51 MacroTechnicals - Tactical Gear On

December FOMC largely matched expectations; constructive SEP reinforces policy being near neutral. I’m tactically bearish into OPEX as bearish momentum takes hold and bear-steepening in yields proving to be a headwind. Also see strong potential for the USD bear-leg to end this week.