Week2 MacroTechnicals - Dips, Doubts & Data Prints
Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG
Week1 MacroTechnicals - BTC/XAG thoughts
Strong gdp prices and growth data challenges “inflation beaten.” Risk-on equities has room to broaden with volatility falling. Fading dominant narratives in commodities, favoring cross-JPY longs, selectively USD longs, and constructive on BTC.
![Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town](/content/images/size/w600/2025/12/ARTICLE-Macrotechnicals-FINAL-01-2.png)
Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town
Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.
Week51 MacroTechnicals - Tactical Gear On
December FOMC largely matched expectations; constructive SEP reinforces policy being near neutral. I’m tactically bearish into OPEX as bearish momentum takes hold and bear-steepening in yields proving to be a headwind. Also see strong potential for the USD bear-leg to end this week.
Week50 MacroTechnicals - Are We Still FOMU'ing?
Goldilocks US data supports risk, but I’m watching for further bear steepening and bouts of rates volatility. Positioning stays core long, but I’m tactically bearish small caps and metals, bullish USD and NZD, bearish CAD and JPY, and still look to buy cross-JPY on dips.
Week49 MacroTechnicals - Six-Seven
We were on six, now seven! 🤲🤲 Is there fuel for an eighth?
Trading Strategy - TrendX
Trend Exhaustion Indicator
Week48 MacroTechnicals - Basing for a year-end rally
US data stays resilient; December FOMC is finely balanced with members expressing more caution. Rough week for Equities but may stabilise if volatility eases from here. Safe-haven flows supported Treasuries and USD causing distortions in rate differentials requiring careful evaluation.
Week47 MacroTechnicals- Bullish but doubtful
A revival in risk is at the mercy of NVDA earnings. Aside that, I don't see what bullish arguments can be made...
Week46 MacroTechnicals - Buy Everything
Buy everything! But beware of higher rates too.
Week45 MacroTechnicals - Tailwinds become Headwinds
Big news. Conventional wisdom would say this is massively risk-on - 1) a swift reversal in all retaliatory measures may have come as a slight surprise, and 2) the 1-year truce will now lift a huge veil of uncertainty that has weighed on economic activity for the majority of 2025.
Week44 MacroTechnicals - Relative Exceptionalism
Trump, China, and trade - why this will be the overriding driver of markets and likely to extend the bull run in risk. Returning to a popular USD framework. A longer-term thesis for the USD. Game plan