Seasonal volatility never came, stocks are raging higher, fed delivered a cut, economic data has been good. Strange as it may sound, I think the biggest risks to all of those is that the good times keeps rolling on further that would prompt a tightening response in the rates market.
Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG
Strong gdp prices and growth data challenges “inflation beaten.” Risk-on equities has room to broaden with volatility falling. Fading dominant narratives in commodities, favoring cross-JPY longs, selectively USD longs, and constructive on BTC.
![Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town](/content/images/size/w600/2025/12/ARTICLE-Macrotechnicals-FINAL-01-2.png)
Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.
December FOMC largely matched expectations; constructive SEP reinforces policy being near neutral. I’m tactically bearish into OPEX as bearish momentum takes hold and bear-steepening in yields proving to be a headwind. Also see strong potential for the USD bear-leg to end this week.