Week47 MacroTechnicals- Bullish but doubtful

Reasons to believe in a strong Santa-rally is lacking in my view. Various bullish tailwinds such as the aggressive front-loading of rate cuts, the optimism around trade deals, have all run its course. Market technicals are also challenging, particularly with US rates entering a bear regime that points to higher yields and incrementally tighter financial conditions, while Oil and USD appear to be basing which, if they do rally, would pose some downside risks to the broader risk complex.

The only arguments for the bull case that I can forsee is NVDA earnings - could very well save the market if it's a blowout and leads the market higher as the World's largest company, and FOMU (Fear of Material Underperformance) taking over - but even this lacks conviction given that the market has been very overweight and concentrated in the AI-themed stocks for the most part the last 5 to 6 months or so.