December FOMC largely matched expectations; constructive SEP reinforces policy being near neutral. I’m tactically bearish into OPEX as bearish momentum takes hold and bear-steepening in yields proving to be a headwind. Also see strong potential for the USD bear-leg to end this week.
Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG
Strong gdp prices and growth data challenges “inflation beaten.” Risk-on equities has room to broaden with volatility falling. Fading dominant narratives in commodities, favoring cross-JPY longs, selectively USD longs, and constructive on BTC.
![Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town](/content/images/size/w600/2025/12/ARTICLE-Macrotechnicals-FINAL-01-2.png)
Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.
Goldilocks US data supports risk, but I’m watching for further bear steepening and bouts of rates volatility. Positioning stays core long, but I’m tactically bearish small caps and metals, bullish USD and NZD, bearish CAD and JPY, and still look to buy cross-JPY on dips.