Week2 MacroTechnicals - Dips, Doubts & Data Prints

Jam-packed macro slate ahead: labour market cooling not cracking, equities breadth shaky but probably just consolidation and done, watching DJFXCM Dollar, watching BTC/XAG

Week1 MacroTechnicals - BTC/XAG thoughts

Strong gdp prices and growth data challenges “inflation beaten.” Risk-on equities has room to broaden with volatility falling. Fading dominant narratives in commodities, favoring cross-JPY longs, selectively USD longs, and constructive on BTC.

Week52 MacroTechnicals - Santa Claus is coming to [low-vol] town

Low post-OPEX vol supports odds of a late Santa-rally, bullish SPX above 6840. Metals are stretched with a few reasons for risk of a pullback. Ueda could jolt JPY.

Week51 MacroTechnicals - Tactical Gear On

December FOMC largely matched expectations; constructive SEP reinforces policy being near neutral. I’m tactically bearish into OPEX as bearish momentum takes hold and bear-steepening in yields proving to be a headwind. Also see strong potential for the USD bear-leg to end this week.

Week50 MacroTechnicals - Are We Still FOMU'ing?

Goldilocks US data supports risk, but I’m watching for further bear steepening and bouts of rates volatility. Positioning stays core long, but I’m tactically bearish small caps and metals, bullish USD and NZD, bearish CAD and JPY, and still look to buy cross-JPY on dips.

Week49 MacroTechnicals - Six-Seven

We were on six, now seven! 🤲🤲 Is there fuel for an eighth?

Trading Strategy - TrendX

Trend Exhaustion Indicator

Week48 MacroTechnicals - Basing for a year-end rally

US data stays resilient; December FOMC is finely balanced with members expressing more caution. Rough week for Equities but may stabilise if volatility eases from here. Safe-haven flows supported Treasuries and USD causing distortions in rate differentials requiring careful evaluation.

Week47 MacroTechnicals- Bullish but doubtful

A revival in risk is at the mercy of NVDA earnings. Aside that, I don't see what bullish arguments can be made...

Week46 MacroTechnicals - Buy Everything

Buy everything! But beware of higher rates too.

Week45 MacroTechnicals - Tailwinds become Headwinds

Big news. Conventional wisdom would say this is massively risk-on - 1) a swift reversal in all retaliatory measures may have come as a slight surprise, and 2) the 1-year truce will now lift a huge veil of uncertainty that has weighed on economic activity for the majority of 2025.

Week44 MacroTechnicals - Relative Exceptionalism

Trump, China, and trade - why this will be the overriding driver of markets and likely to extend the bull run in risk. Returning to a popular USD framework. A longer-term thesis for the USD. Game plan

Week43 MacroTechnicals - Flippage

Flippage - Was bearish risk this time last week, but a TACO headline and Trump confirming the meeting with Xi would go ahead to result in trade tensions simmering down till the end of the month, as well as how the charts have evolved over the last week has shifted my view on risk.

Week42 MacroTechnicals - Volmageddon-esque?

A Volmageddon-esque Setup?

Week41 MacroTechnicals - Eye on Real Rates

Pay close attention to real-rates...

Week40 MacroTechnicals - Expectations Collidies With Shifting Macro

Market expectations are colliding with shifting economic data, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks that together, may well set the tone for the weeks ahead.

Week39 MacroTechnicals - It's All Good, Perhaps A Bit Too much

Seasonal volatility never came, stocks are raging higher, fed delivered a cut, economic data has been good. Strange as it may sound, I think the biggest risks to all of those is that the good times keeps rolling on further that would prompt a tightening response in the rates market.

Week38 MacroTechnicals - Have You Seen Animal Chin?

Some thoughts on major narratives showing signs of exhaustion into potential turning points around FOMC and OPEX, and for a major economy for a compelling trade call.

Week37 MacroTechnicals - Questionable Growth Scare

A lot of downside risks is in the price, and seeing strong potential of a mispricing and misplaced growth-concerns.

Week36 MacroTechnicals - Market Mispricing Risk

Expectations extremely dovish, vols somewhat muted, economic growth robust, fincon easy; for a highly critical week or two that has the potential to cause a polarising shift in sentiment from a cut in September to the possibility of no cuts at all this year, market appears ill-prepared.

2025.08.29 Chartstorm

Growth is strong and you're dovish?

2025.08.25 Weekly

“Markets are just positions” ‘X’ has been very busy dissecting and opining on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this weekend, and what stood out to me in particular is the many views that pointed to the price action to substantiate their view. We believe this is wrong without understanding the

2025.08.22 Chartstorm

Plenty of mixed signals...

2025.08.19 FX Strategy

Big picture trade ideas I explore potential themes and tactical opportunities around the major (except JPY and CHF) over the coming weeks, and hopefully the months ahead should some of those views take shape.